Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,187$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(285 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,116.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,116.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $90$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(7.18 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $333$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,322$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,748.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,748.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,225$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,395.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,395.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,126$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,105$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,790.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,790.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $219$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(34.6 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218.9}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(218.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,854$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,962$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(484 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,167.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,167.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $267$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(19.5 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285.3}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(285.3\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,695$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,627$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,609.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,609.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $529$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(71.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{520.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(520.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,683$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(405 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.58 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.3}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 22.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $53,081$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(5.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,945.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(52,945.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,656$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(718 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,437.8}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,437.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,783$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $220,449$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,302.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(231,302.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,930$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,183.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,183.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $187,517$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $219,070$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,806.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(214,806.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,560$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,887.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,887.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $83,324$ on 2020-05-10
